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ISSN : 1229-3857(Print)
ISSN : 2288-131X(Online)
Korean Journal of Environment and Ecology Vol.38 No.5 pp.477-489
DOI : https://doi.org/10.13047/KJEE.2024.38.5.477

Prediction of Nyctereutes procyonoides Occurrence and Analysis of Environmental Factors in Seoul Using the MaxEnt Model

Min-Kyung Kim2†*, Seul-Gi Koo3†, Chang-Wook Han4†, Sang-Kyu Lee5†
2Division of Urban Environment Research, Seoul Institute, 57 Nambusunhwan-ro 340-gil, Seocho-gu, Seoul, Korea (mk.kim@si.re.kr)
3Dept. of Environmental Science and Engineering, Ewha Womans Univ., 52, Ewhayeodae-gil, Seodaemun-gu, Seoul, Korea (seulki9@ewhain.net)
4Korean Bioresources Research Center, 519, Gyeongin-ro, Sosa-gu, Bucheon-si, Gyeonggi-do, Korea (hancha1254@naver.com)
5Korea Wildlife Ecology Institute, 281 Haengsin-ro, Deogyang-gu, Goyang-si, Gyeonggi-do, Korea (yisangkyu@naver.com)

Abstract

This study aimed to predict the occurrence areas of raccoon dog(Nyctereutes procyonoides) in Seoul’s urban regions using the MaxEnt(Maximum Entropy) model and to analyze the environmental factors influencing their presence. The analysis was conducted using rescue records collected by the Seoul Wildlife Center from 2018 to 2022. Environmental variables such as land cover, road area, slope, distance to food sources, population density, NDVI(Normalized Difference Vegetation Index), distance to water, and grassland area were selected to create the most accurate predictive model. The results showed that raccoon dogs are more likely to appear in grasslands and barren lands, particularly in areas with low road density(<20%). Additionally, raccoon dog occurrences were more probable in areas with gentle slopes (1.7°), close to food sources (26.78m), and low population density(21.70 people/ha). Other significant predictors included low vegetation density(NDVI 0.17), proximity to rivers(32.26m), and large grassland areas(31.14%). Approximately 65.42㎢(10.96%) of Seoul was identified as potential raccoon dog occurrence areas, with key regions located around rivers, forest edges, urban parks, and adjacent grasslands and farmlands. Among these, 28 specific areas (6 in Songpa-gu, 5 in Gangseo-gu, 4 in Gangnam-gu, 3 in Gangdong-gu, 3 in Seocho-gu, and 1 each in Gwangjin-gu, Nowon-gu, Dongdaemun-gu, Dongjak-gu, Mapo-gu, Eunpyeong-gu, and Jungnang-gu) were identified as having the highest likelihood of raccoon dog occurrence. The findings of this study provide essential data for developing strategies to promote coexistence between citizens and raccoon dog, and can serve as a foundation for formulating urban ecological strategies.

MaxEnt 모형을 이용한 서울시 너구리 출몰 예측 및 환경 요인 분석

초록

 

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